A model exploration of carrier and movement transmission as potential explanatory causes for the persistence of foot‐and‐mouth disease in endemic regions

Foot‐and‐mouth disease (FMD) is a virulent and economically important disease of livestock, still endemic in many areas of Asia and sub‐Saharan Africa. Transmission from persistently infected livestock, also known as carriers, has been proposed as a mechanism to support the persistence of FMD in endemic regions. However, whether carrier livestock can infect susceptible animals is controversial; recovered virus is infectious and there are claims of field transmission, but it remains undemonstrated experimentally. Alternate hypotheses for persistence include the movement of livestock within and between regions, and fomite contamination of the environment. Using a stochastic compartmental ordinary differential equation (ODE) model, we investigate the minimum rates of carrier transmission necessary to contribute to the maintenance of FMD in a region, and compare this to the alternate mechanism of persistence through cattle shipments. We find that carrier transmission can theoretically support persistence even at transmission rates much lower than the highest realistic rates previously proposed, and that the parameters with the most effect on the feasibility of carrier‐mediated persistence are the average duration of both the carrier phase and natural immunity. However, shipment‐mediated persistence remains a viable alternate mechanism for persistence without carrier transmission

Spatio-temporal patterns and characteristics of swine shipments in the U.S. based on Interstate Certificates of Veterinary Inspection

Domestic swine production in the United States is a critical economic and food security industry, yet there is currently no large-scale quantitative assessment of swine shipments available to support risk assessments. In this study, we provide a national-level characterization of the swine industry by quantifying the demographic (i.e. age, sex) patterns, spatio-temporal patterns, and the production diversity within swine shipments. We characterize annual networks of swine shipments using a 30% stratified sample of Interstate Certificates of Veterinary Inspection (ICVI), which are required for the interstate movement of agricultural animals. We used ICVIs in 2010 and 2011 from eight states that represent 36% of swine operations and 63% of the U.S. swine industry. Our analyses reflect an integrated and spatially structured industry with high levels of spatial heterogeneity. Most shipments carried young swine for feeding or breeding purposes and carried a median of 330 head (range: 1–6,500). Geographically, most shipments went to and were shipped from Iowa, Minnesota, and Nebraska. This work, therefore, suggests that although the swine industry is variable in terms of its size and type of swine, counties in states historically known for breeding and feeding operations are consistently more central to the shipment network

Spatio-temporal patterns and characteristics of swine shipments in the U.S. based on Interstate Certificates of Veterinary Inspection

Domestic swine production in the United States is a critical economic and food security industry, yet there is currently no large-scale quantitative assessment of swine shipments available to support risk assessments. In this study, we provide a national-level characterization of the swine industry by quantifying the demographic (i.e. age, sex) patterns, spatio-temporal patterns, and the production diversity within swine shipments. We characterize annual networks of swine shipments using a 30% stratified sample of Interstate Certificates of Veterinary Inspection (ICVI), which are required for the interstate movement of agricultural animals. We used ICVIs in 2010 and 2011 from eight states that represent 36% of swine operations and 63% of the U.S. swine industry. Our analyses reflect an integrated and spatially structured industry with high levels of spatial heterogeneity. Most shipments carried young swine for feeding or breeding purposes and carried a median of 330 head (range: 1–6,500). Geographically, most shipments went to and were shipped from Iowa, Minnesota, and Nebraska. This work, therefore, suggests that although the swine industry is variable in terms of its size and type of swine, counties in states historically known for breeding and feeding operations are consistently more central to the shipment network

A comparative assessment of adult mosquito trapping methods to estimate spatial patterns of abundance and community composition in southern Africa

Background Assessing adult mosquito populations is an important component of disease surveillance programs and ecosystem health assessments. Inference from adult trapping datasets involves comparing populations across space and time, but comparisons based on different trapping methods may be biased if traps have different efficiencies or sample different subsets of the mosquito community. Methods We compared four widely-used trapping methods for adult mosquito data collection in Kruger National Park (KNP), South Africa: Centers for Disease Control miniature light trap (CDC), Biogents Sentinel trap (BG), Biogents gravid Aedes trap (GAT) and a net trap. We quantified how trap choice and sampling effort influence inferences on the regional distribution of mosquito abundance, richness and community composition. Results The CDC and net traps together collected 96% (47% and 49% individually) of the 955 female mosquitoes sampled and 100% (85% and 78% individually) of the 40 species or species complexes identified. The CDC and net trap also identified similar regional patterns of community composition. However, inference on the regional patterns of abundance differed between these traps because mosquito abundance in the net trap was influenced by variation in weather conditions. The BG and GAT traps collected significantly fewer mosquitoes, limiting regional comparisons of abundance and community composition. Conclusions This study represents the first systematic assessment of trapping methods in natural savanna ecosystems in southern Africa. We recommend the CDC trap or the net trap for future monitoring and surveillance programs

Evaluation of the Sensitivity and Specificity of an Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assay for Diagnosing Brucellosis in African Buffalo (Syncerus caffer)

Brucellosis is a disease of veterinary and public health importance worldwide. In sub- Saharan Africa, where this disease has been detected in several free-ranging wildlife species, successful disease control may be dependent on accurate detection in wildlife reservoirs, including African buffalo (Syncerus caffer). This study estimates the sensitivity and specificity of a commercial enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (IDEXX, Brucellosis Serum Ab Test) for brucellosis based on a dataset of 571 serum samples from 258 buffalo located within the Kruger National Park, South Africa. We defined a pseudo-gold standard test result as those buffalo that were consistently positive or negative on two additional serological tests, namely the rose bengal test (RBT) and the complement fixation test (CFT). The ELISA’s cut-off value was selected using receiver operating characteristics (ROC) analysis, the pseudo-gold standard, and a threshold criterion that maximizes the total sensitivity and specificity. Then, we estimated the sensitivity and specificity of all three tests using Bayesian inference and latent class analysis. We estimated the ELISA to have a sensitivity of 0.928 (95% BCI from 0.869-0.974) and specificity of 0.870 (95% BCI from 0.836-0.900). Compared to the ELISA, the RBT had a higher estimated sensitivity of 0.986 (95% BCI from 0.928- 0.999), and both the RBT and CFT had higher specificities, estimated to be 0.992 (95% BCI from 0.971 to 0.996) and 0.998 (95% BCI from 0.992 to 0.999), respectively. Therefore, this study shows that no single serological test perfectly diagnosed infection. However, after adjustment of cut-off values for South African conditions, the IDEXX Brucellosis Serum Ab Test may be a valuable additional screening test for brucellosis in Kruger National Park’s African buffalo.This is an author's peer-reviewed final manuscript, as accepted by the publisher. The published article is copyrighted by the Wildlife Disease Association and can be found at: http://www.jwildlifedis.org/,This research was approved by Kruger National Park’s Scientific Services committee and by Oregon State University and University of Georgia IACUC (Protocol numbers OSU: 3822; UGA: A201010-190-A1).Keywords: Bayesian, Sensitivity, Enzyme linked immunosorbent assay, Brucellosis, Latent data, African buffalo, Specificit

Estimating and exploring the proportions of inter- and intrastate cattle shipments in the United States

Mathematical models are key tools for the development of surveillance, preparedness and response plans for the potential events of emerging and introduced foreign animal diseases. Creating these types of plans requires data; when data are incomplete, mathematical models can help fill in missing information, provided they are informed by the data that are available. In the United States, the most complete national-scale data available on cattle shipments are based on Interstate Certificates of Veterinary Inspection, which track the shipment of cattle between states; data on intrastate cattle shipments are lacking. Here we develop four new datasets on intrastate cattle shipments in the U.S., including an expert elicitation survey covering 19 states and territories and three state-level brand inspection data sets. The expert elicitation survey provides estimates on the proportion of shipments that travel interstate over multiple regions of the U.S. These survey data also identify differences in shipment patterns between regions, cattle commodity types, and sectors of the cattle industry. These survey data cover more states than any other source of intrastate data; however, one limitation of these data is the small number of participating experts in many of the states, only seven of the 19 responding states and territories had a group size of three or larger. The brand data sets include origin and destination information for both intra- and interstate shipments. These data, therefore, also provide detailed information on the proportion of interstate shipments in three Western states, including the temporal and geographic variation in shipments. Because the survey and brand data overlap in the Western U.S., they can be compared. We find that in the Western U.S. the expert estimates of the overall proportion of cattle shipments matched the brand data well. However, the experts estimated that there would be larger differences in beef and dairy shipments than the brand data show. This suggests the cattle industries in the West may be sending similar proportions of commodity specific cattle shipments over state lines. We additionally used the expert survey data to explore how differences in the proportion of interstate shipments can change predictions about cattle shipment patterns using the example of model-guided suggestions for targeted surveillance in Texas. Together these four data sets are the most extensive and geographically comprehensive information to date on intrastate cattle shipments. Additionally, our analyses on predicted shipment patterns suggest that assumptions about intrastate shipments could have consequences for targeted surveillance

Context-dependent costs and benefits of tuberculosis resistance traits in a wild mammalian host

Disease acts as a powerful driver of evolution in natural host populations, yet individuals in a population often vary in their susceptibility to infection. Energetic trade-offs between immune and reproductive investment lead to the evolution of distinct life history strategies, driven by the relative fitness costs and benefits of resisting infection. However, examples quantifying the cost of resistance outside of the laboratory are rare. Here, we observe two distinct forms of resistance to bovine tuberculosis (bTB), an important zoonotic pathogen, in a free-ranging African buffalo (Syncerus caffer) population. We characterize these phenotypes as “infection resistance,” in which hosts delay or prevent infection, and “proliferation resistance,” in which the host limits the spread of lesions caused by the pathogen after infection has occurred. We found weak evidence that infection resistance to bTB may be heritable in this buffalo population (h2 = 0.10) and comes at the cost of reduced body condition and marginally reduced survival once infected, but also associates with an overall higher reproductive rate. Infection-resistant animals thus appear to follow a “fast” pace-of-life syndrome, in that they reproduce more quickly but die upon infection. In contrast, proliferation resistance had no apparent costs and was associated with measures of positive host health—such as having a higher body condition and reproductive rate. This study quantifies striking phenotypic variation in pathogen resistance and provides evidence for a link between life history variation and a disease resistance trait in a wild mammalian host population

Estimating and exploring the proportions of inter- and intrastate cattle shipments in the United States

Mathematical models are key tools for the development of surveillance, preparedness and response plans for the potential events of emerging and introduced foreign animal diseases. Creating these types of plans requires data; when data are incomplete, mathematical models can help fill in missing information, provided they are informed by the data that are available. In the United States, the most complete national-scale data available on cattle shipments are based on Interstate Certificates of Veterinary Inspection, which track the shipment of cattle between states; data on intrastate cattle shipments are lacking. Here we develop four new datasets on intrastate cattle shipments in the U.S., including an expert elicitation survey covering 19 states and territories and three state-level brand inspection data sets. The expert elicitation survey provides estimates on the proportion of shipments that travel interstate over multiple regions of the U.S. These survey data also identify differences in shipment patterns between regions, cattle commodity types, and sectors of the cattle industry. These survey data cover more states than any other source of intrastate data; however, one limitation of these data is the small number of participating experts in many of the states, only seven of the 19 responding states and territories had a group size of three or larger. The brand data sets include origin and destination information for both intra- and interstate shipments. These data, therefore, also provide detailed information on the proportion of interstate shipments in three Western states, including the temporal and geographic variation in shipments. Because the survey and brand data overlap in the Western U.S., they can be compared. We find that in the Western U.S. the expert estimates of the overall proportion of cattle shipments matched the brand data well. However, the experts estimated that there would be larger differences in beef and dairy shipments than the brand data show. This suggests the cattle industries in the West may be sending similar proportions of commodity specific cattle shipments over state lines. We additionally used the expert survey data to explore how differences in the proportion of interstate shipments can change predictions about cattle shipment patterns using the example of model-guided suggestions for targeted surveillance in Texas. Together these four data sets are the most extensive and geographically comprehensive information to date on intrastate cattle shipments. Additionally, our analyses on predicted shipment patterns suggest that assumptions about intrastate shipments could have consequences for targeted surveillance

Context-dependent survival, fecundity and predicted population-level consequences of brucellosis in African buffalo

1. Chronic infections may have negative impacts on wildlife populations, yet their effects are difficult to detect in the absence of long-term population monitoring. Brucella abortus, the bacteria responsible for bovine brucellosis, causes chronic infections and abortions in wild and domestic ungulates, but its impact on population dynamics is not well understood. 2. We report infection patterns and fitness correlates of bovine brucellosis in African buffalo based on (1) 7 years of cross-sectional disease surveys and (2) a 4-year longitudinal study in Kruger National Park (KNP), South Africa. We then used a matrix population model to translate these observed patterns into predicted population-level effects. 3. Annual brucellosis seroprevalence ranged from 8·7% (95% CI = 1·8–15·6) to 47·6% (95% CI = 35·1–60·1) increased with age until adulthood (>6) and varied by location within KNP. Animals were on average in worse condition after testing positive for brucellosis (F = −5·074, P < 0·0001), and infection was associated with a 2·0 (95% CI = 1·1–3·7) fold increase in mortality (χ2 = 2·039, P = 0·036). Buffalo in low body condition were associated with lower reproductive success (F = 2·683, P = 0·034), but there was no association between brucellosis and pregnancy or being observed with a calf. 4. For the range of body condition scores observed in the population, the model-predicted growth rate was λ = 1·11 (95% CI = 1·02–1·21) in herds without brucellosis and λ = 1·00 (95% CI = 0·85–1·16) when brucellosis seroprevalence was 30%. 5. Our results suggest that brucellosis infection can potentially result in reduced population growth rates, but because these effects varied with demographic and environmental conditions, they may remain unseen without intensive, longitudinal monitoring.To the best of our knowledge, one or more authors of this paper were federal employees when contributing to this work. This is the publisher’s final pdf. The published article is copyrighted by The Authors and the British Ecological Society. It is published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc., and can be found at: https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2656.1235